An expert claimed that, before its two top generals went to war last week, "everyone wanted a chunk of Sudan," the strategically positioned nation rich in natural resources.
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The New York Times
By Mehran Mazari
Kenya's NAIROBI — Nations from all around the world have quickly mobilized as conflict engulfs Sudan.
27 Egyptian troops were taken hostage by one of the fighting factions in Sudan, and Egypt hurried to recover them. According to American officials, a warlord in Libya supplied weapons to his preferred group.
African, Middle Eastern, and Western diplomats have pleaded for an end to the fighting that has turned portions of Khartoum's capital city into a smoldering battleground.
Even Wagner, the CEO of the most infamous private military firm in Russia, has become involved. He has publicly offered to mediate between the contending generals, but according to American authorities, he has also provided weaponry.
The founder of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, declared in a statement that "the United Nations and many others want the blood of the Sudanese." Mr. Prigozhin, who is conducting a savage military assault in Ukraine on behalf of Russia, continued: "I want peace." He said this without a hint of irony.
Although the surge in international involvement may appear to have come out of nowhere, it actually reflects a dynamic that existed in Sudan long before its two top generals started fighting one another last week.
The 2019 revolution, which saw tens of thousands of demonstrators put an end to President Omar Hasan al-Bashir's three-decade tyranny, was meant to usher in a prosperous and democratic future. The third-largest country in Africa, strategically located on the Nile and the Red Sea, with abundant mineral wealth and agricultural potential, and only recently emerging from decades of sanctions and isolation, presented new opportunities for outside powers to pursue their own interests.
Russia requested access to Red Sea ports for its warships. In exchange for lucrative gold mining concessions, Wagner provided armored vehicles and training. According to sources, the United Arab Emirates paid Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan, one of the fighting Sudanese generals, to assist it in Yemen. Gen. Abdul Fattah al-Burhan was supported by Egypt, which sent troops and aircraft in a contentious show of force.
Israel, long ignored by the Arab world, saw an opportunity to obtain diplomatic recognition from Sudan as something it craved.
And in an effort to resist China's and Russia's growing influence in Africa, Western nations promoted what was perhaps the most challenging proposition of all: the move toward democracy.
The Rift Valley Institute, a research organization, employs a Sudanese analyst named Magdi el-Gizouli. "Everyone wanted a piece of Sudan and it couldn't take all the meddling," he said. He said, "When there were too many conflicting interests and claims, the delicate equilibrium collapsed, as you can see now.
By supporting the military rivals currently engaged in street battles in Khartoum, several foreign powers undermined Sudan's pro-democracy groups and contributed to the country's tilt toward war.
According to the UN, fighting between the two sides — the regular army led by General al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitaries led by Lt. General Hamdan — resulted in more than 400 fatalities and 3,500 injuries over the course of the past week.
The United Arab Emirates, an oil-rich nation in the Persian Gulf that has aggressively increased its influence in the Horn of Africa in recent years, is one of the most significant foreign players in Sudan.
Its interest in Sudan dates back more than ten years, beginning with the country's enormous agricultural potential, which the Emiratis think will allay their concerns about the availability of food. But once Mr. al-Bashir declined to support them in their conflict with their neighbor, Qatar, the Emiratis broke off their relationship with him. The Emirates and Saudi Arabia offered $3 billion in aid and investment after he was overthrown to help Sudan get back on its feet.
The Emiratis, who is a member of the Quad diplomatic bloc, have not publicly sided in Sudan's power conflicts. The coalition, which consists of the US, the UK, and Saudi Arabia, had been trying to return the civilian rule to Sudan for some time.
Officials claim that the Emiratis also supported General Hamdan, the commander of a feared militia that has been blamed for crimes in Darfur, at the same time. He has increased his financial resources over time by conducting business through Dubai.
In 2018, the Emiratis paid General Hamdan to send thousands of soldiers to Yemen to participate in a war that, according to Sudanese officials, brought the general financial gain. The foreign ministry of the Emiratis declined to respond.
Gold that was mined in Sudan and sent to Dubai helped General Hamdan become wealthy as well. At the outset of the invasion of Ukraine, he met with Russian authorities in Moscow and collaborated with Wagner in exchange for a permit to mine gold in Sudan.
According to a number of Western officials, General Hamdan owns private security organizations, real estate, and cattle. His paramilitary troops, which are now better equipped than the official Sudanese military, have become stronger because of that money, much of it stashed in Dubai. This has caused tension between the two sides.
Only three heads of state have officially met General Hamdan, with the most recent meeting taking place in February. This gave General Hamdan the statesman aura he undoubtedly desired. (The leaders of Chad and Eritrea are the other two.)
But according to diplomats in Sudan, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al Nahyan, the nation's vice-president and owner of the British football team Manchester City, who has historical connections with armed groups in General Hamdan's native Darfur, is General Hamdan's closest ally in the Emirates.
However, because the Emiratis like to spread their bets, other princes have sided with General Hamdan's adversaries. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan, who is currently Abu Dhabi's deputy ruler, invested $225 million in an agricultural project in 2020 that included 100,000 acres of the best farmland in the nation with Sudanese businessman Osama Daoud.
Several international officials claimed that since the fighting broke out last Saturday, U.A.E. diplomats had joined the desperate effort to put an end to it. The Emiratis, according to a Western official, appeared to be suffering from "buyer's remorse."
However, some weapon shipments have continued to come despite the ongoing combat.
According to American sources, Khalifa Hifter, a Libyan warlord who is also armed and supported by the U.A.E., has given General Hamdan weapons. Officials said it is unknown whether the guns came from Mr. Hifter's personal collection or from the United Arab Emirates.
On the other side of Sudan's military division lies Egypt, a larger but less developed Arab country.
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the president of Egypt, publicly sided with General al-Burhan as tensions increased within Sudan over the course of the previous year. Mr. el-Sisi, a military general who has ruled with an iron fist since seizing power in a coup in 2013, is hostile to the pro-democracy upheaval that led to the ouster of Sudan's president.
Furthermore, he harbors strong misgivings about General Hamdan, a former militia commander, and would like an officer with formal military training to control Sudan. Additionally, Mr. el-Sisi and General al-Burhan went to the same military academy, so there is a personal link.
Egypt started a political endeavor in Cairo earlier this year to unite the rival factions in Sudan. However, Western diplomats in Khartoum who were attempting to broker a deal between General Hamdan and General al-Burhan considered the Egyptians as spoilers who were working against General Hamdan and in favor of the Sudanese military.
Previously a C.I.A. analyst, Cameron Hudson is now an Africa specialist at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "Egypt has made it clear that it will not tolerate a militia leader on its southern border," he said.
The generals were propelled to war by disagreements about Egypt's involvement in Sudan. General Hamdan's paramilitaries surrounded a military camp at Merowe, 200 miles north of Khartoum, where Egyptian soldiers and roughly a dozen Egyptian jets were stationed, on April 12, three days before the conflict began.
The action sparked a public retort from the Sudanese military, who stated that the Egyptians were there as part of a training exercise. In the case of a battle, General Hamdan undoubtedly feared that the Egyptians would help his adversary, the troops of Sudan, with air power.
General Hamdan's men took at least 27 Egyptians from the Meroe facility when the fighting broke out, which sparked a serious attempt by Western officials to diffuse the situation and prevent the possibility of a regional conflict from spreading.
When the Egyptian detainees were turned over by General Hamdan's men on Thursday, the drama appeared to be ended. However, Western sources warned that Egypt still runs the risk of becoming drawn into the crisis in Sudan.
Warplanes have bombarded General Hamdan's paramilitaries with bombs and rockets as the fight for the capital has heated up recently, putting millions of people in the densely populated city of Khartoum.
But according to American sources, Mr. Prigozhin recently offered the Rapid Support Forces a range of potent weapons, including surface-to-air missiles.
According to the officials, General Hamdan has not made up his mind over whether or not to receive the guns, which would come from Wagner stocks in the Central African Republic.
Since 2019, Wagner has increased its operations in Sudan, mining for gold, looking for uranium, and providing mercenaries to the unrest-ridden Darfur region. Russia and Sudan's military has a history of cooperation.
Israel has a stake as well. It ratified a deal to resume diplomatic ties with Sudan in 2020 with American support. According to Western and Sudanese sources involved with the discussions, a delegation from Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence agency, visited Sudan last year for meetings with security officials, including General Hamdan, who offered counterterrorism and intelligence assistance.
The transition to democracy, which was supported by Western nations, is the foreign initiative in Sudan that has had the least success. The two generals, who had previously shared authority, were due to transfer it to a civilian-led administration this month. They are urging Persian Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to use their clout to pressure the warring generals to cease fire now that their original objective is in tatters.
Alan Boswell, a specialist with the International Crisis Group, brought up the possibility that the Gulf governments could pressure Sudan's generals by focusing on their wealth: "Are they going to freeze assets if they don't listen?" Nobody wants Sudan to become a failing state.
